Every holiday season brings some new twist in the world of online shopping. One year it’s the rise of same-day delivery. Another year it’s the rush into buy-now-pay-later services. But the 2025 shopping season—especially the Black Friday to Cyber Monday stretch—has shown us something different entirely: AI chatbots are no longer just convenient tools for answering questions. They are becoming powerful gateways that steer consumers directly toward major retailers.
Among those AI tools, ChatGPT is quietly emerging as a surprisingly impactful referral engine for mobile shopping apps—even if the overall numbers are still small. And like many early-stage shifts in tech, the influence is unevenly distributed, with the biggest gains landing in the pockets of the industry giants.
A new analysis from app intelligence firm Apptopia offers one of the clearest looks yet at how generative AI is beginning to nudge shoppers toward retail apps during peak shopping periods. On the surface, the numbers might look modest. But beneath those raw percentages lies a story about how consumer behavior is evolving, how much trust people are placing in AI tools, and why companies like Amazon and Walmart may ultimately become the biggest winners.
This blog post unpacks that data—but more importantly, it explores the larger trends behind the numbers. Because what’s happening now isn’t just about referral traffic. It’s about AI slipping into the role of personalized shopping assistant, product researcher, idea generator, and discovery engine.
And we’re only in the opening chapter.
AI Enters the Holiday Shopping Chat: What the Numbers Actually Say
Let’s start with the headline: Apptopia recorded a 28% year-over-year increase in retail app sessions that followed directly after a ChatGPT session during the Black Friday holiday window.
That window covered Thanksgiving Thursday through the following Sunday—the kick-off to one of the busiest retail stretches of the year.
Apptopia’s tracking is based on behavioral patterns collected from U.S. mobile users. It isn’t first-party data but rather large-scale observational sampling, giving us directional insights rather than exact totals. The team defined what counts as a “referral session” very specifically:
A referral session occurs when someone finishes a ChatGPT session and, within 30 seconds, opens a retail app.
This could happen in two ways:
- The user clicked a link ChatGPT provided.
- ChatGPT gave advice or a recommendation that inspired them to open a retailer’s app.
Not surprisingly, the list of retailers benefiting from this behavior is heavily skewed. And skewed in a familiar direction.
The Big Winners: Amazon and Walmart Soak Up Most of ChatGPT’s Traffic
When people talk to ChatGPT about shopping, comparisons, gift ideas, or holiday deals, two retailer names dominate the follow-through: Amazon and Walmart.
According to Apptopia’s data:
- Amazon accounted for 54% of all ChatGPT-related referrals.
- That’s a significant jump from its 40.5% share in 2024.
- Walmart surged to 14.9%, up from just 2.7% last year.
Combined, the two largest retailers controlled almost 70% of all mobile app sessions that occurred after users interacted with ChatGPT.
This pattern reflects something deeper than “big brands get big traffic.” It shows that when consumers ask AI tools for product recommendations, they’re subconsciously falling back on the retailers they trust most—or the ones they can name most easily.
And generative AI tends to reinforce that behavior because:
- There is more product data available from mega-retailers.
- Major brands have better SEO, API coverage, and catalog metadata.
- They run more experiments with AI tie-ins and structured product data.
- Their massive inventories allow AI tools to make confident recommendations.
But this situation raises questions about fairness. If AI is becoming a central gateway to product discovery, and if AI tools are unintentionally steering users toward the dominant players, what happens to small- and mid-sized businesses?
We’ll return to that question later.
AI Referrals Are Growing—but Still Tiny Compared to Overall Traffic
Even though the year-over-year increase is significant, AI referral traffic is still very small relative to total ChatGPT usage.
In 2024, only 0.64% of all ChatGPT sessions on Black Friday led directly to an e-commerce app.
This year, that number rose slightly to 0.82%.
So despite all the hype around AI disrupting everything, chatbots are still just getting started in the realm of retail traffic.
But here’s the important part:
These numbers will not stay small.
The growth curve already tells a clear story:
- As more people become comfortable asking AI tools for shopping help, referrals will rise.
- As AI models become more personalized, recommendations will improve.
- As more retailers integrate with AI tools, linking and conversion rates will increase.
- As consumers face information overload, they will lean on AI for filtering and decision-making.
If you zoom out, you can see the beginnings of what could become a seismic shift in how consumers move from “question” to “purchase.”
Generative AI is slowly becoming the new front door to online shopping.
Adobe’s Data Paints a Bigger, Faster, Louder Picture
While Apptopia’s numbers focus on ChatGPT and mobile app sessions, Adobe’s analytics provide a broader view across all U.S. retail websites.
And Adobe’s findings reveal something astounding:
- AI-driven traffic to retail sites rose 805% year over year on Black Friday.
- On Cyber Monday, AI-referred traffic increased 670%.
- Across the holiday season (Nov 1 – Dec 1), AI-driven traffic is up 760%.
Those are not small jumps. Those are tidal waves.
Adobe also found that consumers who visited a retail site via an AI chatbot were 38% more likely to make a purchase compared to visitors coming from other traffic sources.
Why such high conversion rates?
Because users engaging with AI tools tend to have:
- clearer intent
- more specific product needs
- fewer doubts
- higher information confidence
- reduced decision fatigue
It’s the difference between browsing and buying.
Someone wandering a mall might walk into five stores and leave with nothing. Someone who asks ChatGPT, “What’s the best camera for travel photography under $600?” is clearly on a mission.
Why AI Recommendations Drive Higher Conversions
Let’s get into the psychology and mechanics behind this pattern.
AI-driven conversions are higher for four main reasons:
1. AI reduces choice paralysis
Retail websites bombard shoppers with dozens of filters and thousands of product options.
AI chatbots simplify this to a handful of curated picks.
2. AI mimics personal guides
A recommendation from an AI tool feels closer to getting advice from a knowledgeable friend than a faceless search bar.
3. AI can instantly compare options
Shoppers love comparison tools, but most don’t want to manually analyze details like battery life, build quality, or return policies.
AI does all that instantly.
4. AI tailors recommendations to context
Holiday shoppers often have constraints: budgets, hobbies, ages of recipients, personal preferences.
AI tools can weave these variables together in seconds.
This is why AI referrals—even if small today—are converting so effectively.
Amazon’s Own AI Chatbot, Rufus, Shows What the Future Might Look Like
ChatGPT is only one part of the story.
Amazon’s first-party AI shopping assistant, Rufus, is showing what happens when AI lives inside a retail ecosystem.
Data from Sensor Tower shows:
- Amazon sessions that used Rufus and led to a purchase doubled compared to normal.
- Sessions without Rufus increased only 20%.
- Day-over-day use of Rufus for purchases grew 75% on Black Friday.
The differences are striking.
When shoppers use Rufus:
- They stay longer.
- They convert more often.
- They buy with more confidence.
And perhaps most importantly:
Sessions that involved Rufus grew faster than Amazon’s total site sessions.
That means users are deliberately choosing to use the AI tool—not just stumbling into it.
Rufus, launched widely in the U.S. in late 2024, already handles:
- product discovery
- comparisons
- gift ideas
- educational queries about product features
- browsing assistance
In other words, it’s not just a chatbot—it's becoming part of the shopping fabric.
This is a preview of what’s likely coming to every major online retailer.
Holiday Shoppers Are Leaning on AI More Than Ever
Adobe also surveyed holiday shoppers directly, and nearly half (48%) said they have used or plan to use AI for holiday shopping tasks.
These tasks include:
- finding gift ideas
- comparing products
- discovering deals
- validating whether a product is worth the price
- reading simplified reviews
- checking compatibility (e.g., “Does this work with PS5?”)
- analyzing alternatives
This is a pivotal change in how consumers interact with e-commerce ecosystems.
We’re watching the early stages of AI becoming the default shopping assistant for millions.
Why Big Retailers Benefit More Than Small Shops—For Now
The early impact of AI referrals disproportionately benefits mega-retailers for predictable reasons:
1. AI models have more data to work with
Large retailers have massive product catalogs with rich metadata, structured attributes, reviews, and ratings.
Small retailers? Often not.
2. AI is trained on information-heavy sources
Models like ChatGPT and Rufus can only recommend what they “understand.” Bigger brands equal better training signals.
3. Convenience wins
Consumers trust Amazon and Walmart for:
- fast shipping
- easy returns
- familiar interfaces
- high availability
When an AI tool suggests a product, shoppers default to the path of least resistance.
4. Small retailers lack deep integration
Smaller companies typically haven’t optimized their catalogs for AI-driven shopping (yet).
But that gap won’t last forever.
As AI platforms introduce tools that allow merchants to feed structured data directly into chatbots, the playing field may begin to level.
Economic Caution Still Shapes the 2025 Shopping Season
Interestingly, none of this AI-driven enthusiasm has magically erased economic anxieties.
Sensor Tower notes signs that shoppers were more cautious this year:
- App downloads grew slower than last holiday season.
- Website visit spikes were less dramatic than in 2024.
- Spending increases may reflect higher prices—not more purchases.
Salesforce found average online prices were 7% higher and order volumes were down by 1% this year.
So yes, shoppers are using AI more. They’re consulting chatbots for ideas. They’re finding deals faster.
But they’re also tightening their budgets.
What All This Means for the Future of Retail
The AI shopping boom we’re seeing today is still in its infancy. But the trajectory is clear: AI is shifting from being a novelty to being part of the shopping infrastructure.
Here’s where things are heading:
1. AI will become the default starting point for product research.
Search engines will lose ground to chat-driven shopping.
2. Retailers will compete to integrate the smartest AI assistants.
We’ll see more first-party bots like Amazon’s Rufus.
3. AI-native shopping experiences will emerge.
Imagine a shopping app with no homepage—just a chatbot.
4. Merchants will optimize product catalogs for AI consumption.
The same way they optimized for SEO over the past 20 years.
5. Conversion rates will rise as AI reduces friction.
People make faster decisions with clearer information.
6. Referral traffic will become more meaningful.
Today’s small percentages are tomorrow’s major revenue streams.
7. The competitive gap between major retailers and small shops could widen—unless smaller retailers adapt quickly.
Final Thoughts: We’re Witnessing the Dawn of AI-Guided Commerce
The role AI plays in holiday shopping—and retail broadly—is expanding in ways that were hard to imagine even a few years ago. Consumers are learning to rely on digital assistants not just for answering trivia or creating content, but for helping them navigate an overload of product choices.
The data from Apptopia, Adobe, and Sensor Tower all point in the same direction:
- AI usage is exploding.
- AI-influenced purchases are growing.
- Retailers with strong AI integrations get rewarded.
- Consumer behavior is shifting at a systemic level.
And the biggest takeaway?
AI isn’t just shaping how we shop—it’s shaping where we shop.
As we move into 2026 and beyond, expect AI-powered discovery, recommendations, and personalization to become as fundamental to online shopping as the search bar once was.
We’ve entered a new era: shopping with an AI guide at our side.
